The impacts of climate change on agriculture must be viewed in the context of everincreasing demand for food and agricultural products. Agriculture currently accounts for nearly a quarter of world economic output and employment.1 The world’s population is growing rapidly, rising from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6.5 billion in 2005 and to an expected 9 billion by 2050.2 As per capita incomes rise in industrializing countries such as China and India, so too will the demand for food and, in particular, meat – which will in turn necessitate increases in fodder crop supplies. If biofuels production also expands, so too will the area devoted to source crops.

Global crop production will have to increase significantly over the coming decades to meet these demands.3 Under normal circumstances, ongoing improvements in crop yields (due to technical advances and irrigation) and expansion of the amount of land under crop might be sufficient to meet the growing demand. However, “normal circumstances” are unlikely to prevail over the coming decades since climate change is expected to affect the environmental factors that determine global crop production.

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