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Must-Reads For Investors

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We asked dozens of pros what they pull off the shelf again and again

By Christopher Farrell, with Greg Hafkin | Jul 10, 2006 | 1670 words, 0 images

When I got my first job covering financial markets in the early 1980s, I didn’t know a thing about stocks and bonds, an inconvenient fact I failed to mention to the editor who hired me. In something of a panic, I called an acquaintance who had a PhD in economics and a high-paying job on Wall Street. “What should I read?” I asked. “Two books,” he said. “That’s all you’ll need.” His recommendations were A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel and The Only Investment Guide You’ll Ever Need by Andrew Tobias. I’ve read dozens of finance and economics books since then, but those two have always stood me in good stead.

Of course, the investing world has changed vastly in the interim. Back then, 401(k)s didn’t exist, let alone online trading, exchange-traded funds, and the ability to buy stock in Russian and Chinese companies. Just 13% of Americans owned stocks in the early ’80s; now more than half the population does.

We asked dozens of professional investors what books they think will best serve the individual investor today. What tomes do they turn to for inspiration, guidance, and understanding? What authors have stood the test of time? “You want books that give some perspective about managing wealth over the long term,” says Andrew Lo, finance economist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management. “That’s the single biggest challenge for an aging population today.”

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

By Peter Bernstein (Wiley)

Risk is a rich word with many shades of meaning. How much financial risk are you willing to take? What risks do you want to avoid? Bernstein, the dean of finance economists and a philosopher of risk, published in 1996 this fascinating history of the concept and how managing risk is the essence of investing. “The revolutionary idea that defines the boundary between modern times and the past is the mastery of risk: the notion that the future is more than the whim of the gods and that men and women are not passive before nature,” writes Bernstein. For example, in one chapter he eloquently details how Nobel laureate Harry Markowitz, while a graduate student at the University of Chicago, mathematically illustrated the power of diversification to lower risk and increase returns, and why it’s the “nearest an investor can ever come to a free lunch.” Bernstein manages to bring these abstract notions to life.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds

By Charles MacKay (Harriman House Classics)

Ah, if only more investors had read this during the heady dot-com boom. They might not have lost their nest eggs in eToys or online grocer Webvan Group. First published in 1841, MacKay’s book is a powerful portrayal of those times when investors abandon reason and succumb to mass mania, e.g., tulipmania in 17th century Holland. In the preface to the 1932 version, the famous investor Bernard Baruch captures the book’s spirit by quoting the poet Friedrich von Schiller: “Anyone taken as an individual is tolerably sensible and reasonable — as a member of a crowd, he at once becomes a blockhead.”’

A more modern classic, originally published in the late 1970s, is Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, 5th Edition by Charles Kindleberger and Robert Aliber (Wiley Investment Classics). In this latest edition, Kindleberger, with the help of international economist Aliber, deals with a number of later asset price bubbles, such as the Japanese economy in the 1980s and the tech-stock boom of the 1990s. “By reading it you’ll see the extent to which human nature doesn’t change, especially when it comes to the emotion that tends to drive investing and speculating and fear and greed,” says Edward Yardeni, chief investment officer at Oak Associates, an Akron investment firm.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 9th Edition

By Burton Malkiel (W.W. Norton)

In this classic, first published in 1973, Princeton University’s Malkiel translates the quantitative, highly abstract insights of modern finance theory into everyday language. He taps into a colorful vein of financial history to bring alive the capital markets. Malkiel argues that in this extremely competitive global arena, trying to beat the market is a fool’s game that is hazardous to your wealth. Instead, his mantra is diversify and invest in index funds.

The last part of the book is a practical guide to managing money, covering everything from limiting Uncle Sam’s take to evaluating choices in the fixed- income markets. “It separates all the hype about money managers doing better using evidence that many of them don’t, and that you really have to pay attention to fees when you look at your portfolio,” says Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School.

Investment Policy: How to Win the Loser’s Game, 4th edition

By Charles Ellis (McGraw-Hill)

A longtime consultant to institutional investors, Ellis distilled a lot of experience for individual investors in this book, which was first published in 1988. He uses a number of analogies to explain his investment philosophy, including tennis. He argues that you win in tennis by not making a mistake, by keeping the ball in play until your opponent errs. The same holds for investing.

Source: www.keepmedia.com  10-07-2006

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Shai Dardashti

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Kevin Kelly:  Why do you prefer value investing to other strategies?

Shai Dardashti: If one has a choice of two different investments, case A or B, with the following dynamics - B:  +30% for 5 years, then in year 6 it’s down 80% or A:  +15% for 5 years…a bit choppy, but nothing terrible — A should, in theory (assuming the theoretical numbers work), outperform.  The key in the end is to try to reduce the chance of a terrible loss.  Momentum trading works, so does value.  But, from my understanding of things, it’s harder to have a permanent loss of invested capital when buying something worth $1 for 50 cents

KK: What investors have had the biggest influence on you?

SD: Graham’s writings have been and continue to be a critical foundation, Buffett’s concepts on qualitative matters are important.  Mohnish Pabrai and Joel Greenblatt provide an interesting framework for applying the concepts to real world situations.

KK: When determining the value of a given marketable security what do you rely on? –DCF modeling, comparable analysis, “salvage” value, etc.

SD: Common Sense — if it’s too close to call with a DCF model (i.e. a discount rate of 10% vs. 5% makes a big deal) then it’s really hard to argue it’s a 50 cent dollar.  Rather, it’s generally best to come across a situation that just, on first glance, seems a little weirdly priced.  Then, after digging deeper into earnings power, assets value, etc., get a solid idea of what the business is worth.

SD:  For example, if someone can buy a rental car company for a price well below the scrap price of the cars themselves, then something is weird. A similar dynamic played out with Frontline (FRO) a few years back.  Frontline is a “rental oil tanker” company, rather than a rental car company; but in the end, it’s basically a similar concept.  In this case, it’s buying an oil tanker business for less than the scrap metal of the ships themselves.

SD:  It comes back to the Buffett Story:  Have $1 million to invest, and know you’ll be out of town for 5 years. So, common sense — First, figure out businesses you can understand.  Then, get an idea of the prices.  Then, buy when it’s a good price to pay for the value received.

KK: From speaking with you I gather you are no believer in diversification.  If academia and most of Wall Street is pro-diversification why are you pro-focus?

SD: If someone is buying local businesses in the area (like a candy store, gas station, pizza shop, etc.) then it would be a bit dumb to decide to own 1% of 100 companies in the city rather than cherry pick the best companies and act when the price is right.

SD: I have a different set of incentives and goals that some other investors and as such, for someone in that situation, it would make sense to avoid the risk of generating a return that could jeopardize one’s capital base and ultimately one’s job.  And as a result, there’s the intentional (or unintentional) process of “closet indexing.”  I have no reason to closet index, so I don’t.

KK: Explain how you filter ideas?

SD: There’s about 8,000 stocks or so - the idea is to get to 5 to 8.  There’s first a few common sense issues, like:
-Are they actually a real business?  (There are still some frauds out there!)
-Are they actually a deecnt busness? (A lot of stocks are for businesses that have          never earned a cent, and likely won’t for a while)

SD: Then, conceptually…Can I ever figure out what they do?

SD: The idea becomes to shortlist situations that are unique in that the businesses are particularly good, the situations are particularly cheap - ultimately with the goal of finding a dynamic such that the two elements align at the same time.  Or, alternatively, to find a situation in which “Mr. Market” seems to be applying an extraordinarily stupid price for a business, for a reason that I can recognize with some degree of intelligence and confidence as particularly stupid.

SD: A lot of stocks trade at below book value and oftentimes for very good reason.  It’s nice to have a Variant Perception; to know why a situation is trading where it is, and to feel confident that the alternative view towards the situation has some substantive reason for proving correct over time.  To some extent, Bufftet’s purchase of American Express is a case-in-point –Mr. Market saw a broken franchise,  Buffett saw a steakhouse in Omaha in which consumers still used their cards regularly, and a very strong brand.

SD: Case in point with Washington Post.  Buffett bought at a time Mr. Market thought it was worthless, but personally knew full well that in any other environment people would “swim to an deserted island”  to partake in an auction for its assets.  Perhaps McDonald’s during the Mad Cow scare was a more recent example.

KK: When choosing your career path you chose to bypass the traditional “few years on the Street” that seems very typical - how come you went straight to running your own money management firm?

SD: My goal has always been twofold: (a) work in an environment such that I am surrounded by people I respect, trust, and admire; and (b) work in an environment in which I am continually learning every single day.  The dynamics of Dardashti Capital Management allow for both the two points, and then some.

KK: how come you charge no management fee at your firm, purely an incentive fee?

SD: If I were hiring a race car driver, I think it would make sense to pay him primarily based on how well he performed during the race.  To pay an exorbitant amount of cash just for turning on the ignition of the vehicle strikes me as a bit unusual.  Similarly, when managing an investment vehicle, I like to get paid for performance.  In practical matters, every business has overhead.  The overhead of Dardashti Capital Management is such that I can operate under a cost structure that is absolutely impossible for someone who lives in a multi-million dollar home with children in private school, a fancy car, several analysts paid 6 figures, and other costs.  My personal and office rent together amount to roughly $2,000, or $24,000 a year.  If someone is paying a team of 4 analysts $80,000 a year the monthly fee is the same as my annual office overhead.  I don’t have a Bloomberg terminal, I don’t even have a TV — I’m quite content with a desk, a telephone, a fax machine, pencil, paper, an internet connection, and a printer. I don’t really have much need for anything else.   I read a few newspapers and a few magazines.  There’s not much beyond that.

KK: What newspapers/magazines do you read?

SD: The same as everyone else.

KK: Like…

SD: Fortune, Forbes, Business Week, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc.

KK: How do you differentiate between “true value” and a “value trap?”

SD: Two things can be catalysts in their own: Time and Value.

SD: If a business is making a return on invested capital of say 50% a year, as time goes on - it’s growing in intrinsic value.  If a business is trading at 4 times Free Cash Flow, at some point, assuming the earnings normalize/stabilize, it will be trading at more than 4 times free cash flow.  It’s not an issue of a deep value vs. value trap - it’s an issue of:  How can I be confident that in 2 years from now, this stock cannot be trading at the same price as it is now, and that price in two years will be materially higher and not materially lower.

KK: When seeking “catalysts” what do you look for?

SD: It’s all case-by-case.  Generally, some data-point such that (a) it’s pretty unlikely the situation will be flat between Time A and Time B.  In addition, some data-point suggesting why it’s highly unlikely that at Time B the situation will be lower and more likely it’ll be higher.

KK: How come you are against shorting / derivatives?

SD: I’m particularly good at certain things, particularly bad at certain things, and choose to avoid certain things just since I’d rather focus on what I can do decently well.  Buying 5 to 8 situations that I think are solid opportunities to own something for $1 that’s offered for sale at well below that price, I think, is hard enough as is.  I don’t see much reason to make the game even more complicated, especially when, as Mohnish has discussed in his Mosaic book, oftentimes the odds for such bets are generally in favor of the house and not the gambler.

KK: If you had to recommend 5 books to our readers what would they be?

SD: In order of importance: 1) The Little Book that Beats the Market; 2) Mosaic, Mohnish Pabrai; 3) The Accounting Game; 4) Buffett’s Partnership and Berkshire Letters; 5) The Intelligent Investor.

KK: What’s your take on Munger’s idea of “mental models?”

SD: If one accepts the concept of trying to find a “variant perception” as a means to identify a situation trading below intrinsic value (i.e. a case in which Mr. Market’s price does not accurately reflect the business’ true value), then it’s a logical conclusion to try to become fluent (or at least familiar) in a range of multi-disciplinary fields, to be able to see a situation from multiple angles.  Or, at the very least, to train one’s self to try to think in a “non-linear” fashion.

SD: For example:  When Wall Street sees an oil tanker company and naturally thinks about DCF models — it’s nice to have the flexibility to see the situation and ask how much the steel in the ships is actually worth — a whole new way of viewing the situation

SD: Or, alternatively, to find a situation in which “Mr. Market” seems to be applying an extraordinarily irrational price for a business, for a reason that I can recognize with some degree of confidence.  It’s always nice to have courage in one’s conviction.

KK:  How do you advise rising value investors to study and learn the game?

SD: Greenblatt (and earlier, Buffett) have stressed that the best way to learn the art of value investing is through case study.  Along those lines, perhaps the most powerful means through which to get a grasp of applied valuation is to spend a solid amount of time “taking apart and reassembling” some of the more interesting reports at ValueInvestorsClub.com.  And in the end of the day, value investing is in a sense very much akin to professional music playing:  Everyone knows the same basic tunes, but each musician plays the song with an individual style.  All value investors understand Margin of Safety, Intrinsic Value, and Mr. Market, yet, there’s countless means to reach countless ends - using the same basic building blocks.  And just like music, in the end, the same tune played different ways can sound equally rewarding.

Source: www.valueblogger.com  14-07-2006

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